Konuşmanın Türkçesini okumak için:
Shota Apkhaidze – Güney Kafkasya’da Güvenlik Konferansı Konuşması
The New Security Environment and Opportunities for Cooperation in the South Caucasus
Conflict Potential of the South Caucasus. A new geopolitical configuration has emerged in the region. After the Azerbaijani state liberated its territories from Armenian occupation in 2020, a new security environment was formed in the region. In 2023, Azerbaijan ensured full sovereignty over Khankendi and the surrounding areas, thereby resolving the issue of territorial integrity. The peace agenda formulated in line with the strategic vision of President Ilham Aliyev serves stability in the region and the expansion of international cooperation. The peace model of the Azerbaijani state is based on the principles of territorial integrity, sovereignty, and international law. Azerbaijan’s geostrategic position, resources, and its transportation and logistics projects play a stabilizing role in the region.
Establishment of a regional security system. The peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The results of the 44-day Patriotic War and the subsequent events of September 2023, the full restoration of Azerbaijan’s state sovereignty within its internationally recognized borders, and the beginning of the normalization process between Azerbaijan and Armenia allow us to initiate real discussions, after a long interval, on the possibilities of establishing a regional security system in the South Caucasus. Despite the challenges, negotiations continue on the establishment of an effective security system in the South Caucasus. Among the proposed conditions are the signing of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the delimitation of borders, the opening of transportation links, and the transformation of the region into a “subjective” structure, that is, into a unified political and economic center.
The nature of political relations among regional states, opportunities for cooperation, and security issues. Azerbaijan–Türkiye alliance relations. The Türkiye–Armenia dialogue and its impact on the region. The new “3+3” cooperation format. Azerbaijan–Türkiye alliance relations. The Türkiye–Armenia dialogue and its impact on the region. The new “3+3” cooperation format. The “3+3” format is a consultation platform that brings together three South Caucasus states (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) and three regional powers (Russia, Türkiye, and Iran). The initiative was launched in 2020, following the end of the 44-day Patriotic War, with the aim of establishing an inclusive dialogue in the fields of security, transportation, economy, and other areas of cooperation in the region without the direct intervention of external actors. To strengthen regional security and reduce tensions. The platform can become a tool for discussing and resolving sensitive issues such as border delimitation and demarcation, the opening of transportation links, and ensuring regional security. In the context of geopolitical tensions, the format has the potential to reduce the influence of actors outside the region and to promote stability.
The interests of non-regional states and their effects on security and cooperation in the South Caucasus. The interests of non-regional states in the South Caucasus are a significant factor in instability. This situation may lead to the escalation of conflicts, economic dependency of regional countries, shifts in the balance of power, and involvement in global conflicts. However, the degree of risk depends on the ability of local states to preserve their independence and on the effectiveness of international mechanisms. The most effective mechanism to neutralize the policies of non-regional states that are dangerous for the region is to intensify cooperation among regional states. In this context, the “3+3” format (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia + Russia, Türkiye, Iran) is the most effective cooperation format both for strengthening regional cooperation and for resolving security problems in a more reliable manner. The main factor affecting the development of regional cooperation and the establishment of a functioning security system is the nature of relations among Azerbaijan, Türkiye, Russia, Iran, Armenia, and Georgia.
